Cincinnati: Where Do Residents Come From?
by Jake Hill, LawnStarter Research Analyst
August 8, 2017
Not surprisingly, Cincinnati gains the most residents from its two closest neighboring metros in the state: Columbus and Dayton. The two metros combined supply Cincinnati with over 10,000 new residents per year. While Cincinnati actually loses more residents than it gains from Columbus, it’s attracting thousands more residents from Dayton than Columbus is.
From 2010 to 2014, an average of 6,000 people per year moved away from Cincinnati to Columbus. During the same period, an average of only 4,422 people per year relocated from the Columbus area to the Cincinnati area, a LawnStarter analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows.
The upshot: Stacked up against Columbus, Cincinnati had an annual deficit of 1,578 residents from 2010 to 2014.
(To see which metro areas are sending the most residents to Cincinnati, see the list at the end of the story.)
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Moreover, from 2010 to 2014, the Columbus metro area grew 4.74 percent whereas the Cincinnati metro area grew only 1.36 percent.
Though the U.S. Census Bureau hasn’t released Metro-to-Metro Migration Flow data past 2014, the trend looks to continue with the Cincinnati metro area's total population growing less than 1 percent from 2014 to 2016, while the Columbus metro area tacked on an additional 4.51 percent of their 2014 population.
Which makes a lot of sense, Columbus is a happening place whose urban culture is comparable to cities like Austin and Nashville. Columbus is the nation’s 14th largest city, business is booming, and, for most millennials, (soon to make up 75 percent of the workforce) the more urban the city the better.
Even Columbus’ economic growth trumps Cincinnati. GDP (adjusted for inflation) grew on average 3.06 percent per year over the 2010-14 period, whereas Cincy’s GDP grew only 2.03 percent.
So, why do so many Daytonians move to Cincinnati instead of Columbus?
Cincinnati gains more residents from Dayton annually than any other metro area in the country. Despite Columbus’ ostensible superiority over Cincinnati, Dayton sends approximately 3,820 more residents each year to Cincinnati than Columbus.
Dayton to Cincinnati Population Exchange
New residents per year from Dayton to Cincinnati: 6,388
Residents who relocated per year from Cincinnati to Dayton: 5,154
Annual net gain for Cincinnati: +1,234
Dayton to Columbus Population Exchange
New residents per year from Dayton to Columbus: 3,450
Residents who relocated per year from Columbus to Dayton: 2,568
Annual net gain for Columbus: +882
The numbers don’t lie, Dayton residents prefer Cincinnati to Columbus.
While both cities certainly have their pros and cons, it seems that most Daytonians feel more of a connection with Cincinnati. Most of the greater Dayton population reside in the southern suburbs, so a day trip to Cincinnati is much more convenient than Columbus.
(It's even been rumored that the 2020 census may include the Cincinnati-Dayton area as one mega metro area like Dallas-Fort Worth.)
“Cincinnati is a lot more familiar to Daytonians,” explains Jesse Douglas, who grew up in Dayton, Ohio.
“Growing up in Dayton you went to Cincinnati for Kings Island––or in my case go through Cincinnati to head into Kentucky to visit family. Cincinnati is a quick hop from Dayton with a lot of stuff in between,” Douglas continues.
Whereas a Columbus day-trip requires an extra forty minutes of drive time round trip with “pretty much a lot of nothing” in-between.
So, it appears most Daytonians simply base their decision on where to move off of what they’re most familiar with––which is Cincinnati.
But what about the places outside of Ohio and the people who aren’t as familiar with Cincinnati as Daytonians?
The Top 16 Suppliers of New Residents to Cincinnati
So, which metros supplied the most new residents per year to the Cincinnati metro area from 2010 to 2014? Here are the top 16.
1. Dayton, OH Metro Area
New residents per year from Dayton to Cincinnati: 6,388
Residents who relocated per year from Cincinnati to Dayton: 5,154
Annual net gain for Cincinnati: +1,234
2. Columbus, OH Metro Area
New residents per year from Columbus to Cincinnati: 4,422
Residents who relocated per year from Cincinnati to Columbus: 6,000
Annual net less for Cincinnati: -1,578
3. Cleveland-Elyria, OH Metro Area
New residents per year from Cleveland to Cincinnati: 2,510
Residents who relocated per year from Cincinnati to Cleveland: 1,276
Annual net gain for Cincinnati: +1,234
4. Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN Metro Area
New residents per year from Louisville to Cincinnati: 1,787
Residents who relocated per year from Cincinnati to Louisville: 1,649
Annual net gain for Cincinnati: +138
5. Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metro Area
New residents per year from Chicago to Cincinnati: 1,559
Residents who relocated per year from Cincinnati to Chicago: 1,395
Annual net gain for Cincinnati: +164
6. New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metro Area
New residents per year from New York to Cincinnati: 1,315
Residents who relocated per year from Cincinnati to New York: 555
Annual net gain for Cincinnati: +760
7. Lexington-Fayette, KY Metro Area
New residents per year from Lexington to Cincinnati: 1,273
Residents who relocated per year from Cincinnati to Lexington: 2,352
Annual net loss for Cincinnati: -1,079
8. Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN Metro Area
New residents per year from Indianapolis to Cincinnati: 1,160
Residents who relocated per year from Cincinnati to Indianapolis: 1,015
Annual net gain for Cincinnati: +145
9. Toledo, OH Metro Area
New residents per year from Toledo to Cincinnati: 751
Residents who relocated per year from Cincinnati to Toledo: 1,113
Annual net loss for Cincinnati: -362
10. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Area
New residents per year from Washington DC to Cincinnati: 712
Residents who relocated per year from Cincinnati to Washington DC: 609
Annual net gain for Cincinnati: +103
11. Akron, OH Metro Area
New residents per year from Akron to Cincinnati: 637
Residents who relocated per year from Cincinnati to Akron: 489
Annual net gain for Cincinnati: +148
12. Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metro Area
New residents per year from Detroit to Cincinnati: 634
Residents who relocated per year from Cincinnati to Detroit: 402
Annual net gain for Cincinnati: +232
13. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metro Area
New residents per year from Atlanta to Cincinnati: 624
Residents who relocated per year from Cincinnati to Atlanta: 1,004
Annual net loss for Cincinnati: -380
14. Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metro Area
New residents per year from the Twin Cities to Cincinnati: 615
Residents who relocated per year from Cincinnati to the Twin Cities: 123
Annual net gain for Cincinnati: +492
15. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metro Area
New residents per year from Dallas-Fort Worth to Cincinnati: 608
Residents who relocated per year from Cincinnati to Dallas-Fort Worth: 557
Annual net gain for Cincinnati: +51
16. Asheville, NC Metro Area
New residents per year from Asheville to Cincinnati: 603
Residents who relocated per year from Cincinnati to Asheville: 112
Annual net gain for Cincinnati: +491
Top Photo: The Odyssey Online
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