2020’s Most Defiant States in the U.S.

Why is non-compliance with the law more prevalent in some states than in others?

People and government choice in those states to inadequately provide support to citizens in need of assistance.

Certain types of crimes (including homicides, aggravated assaults and gun violence) have spiked, while others (rape, robberies and property crimes) have dropped, during the pandemic. What accounts for the rise and fall in rates of these violations this year?

The prevalence of guns.

How can states best reduce crime and other types of violations, especially during the pandemic?

We need adequate social support programming.

What makes people more likely than others to defy COVID-19 rules?

Poor information management and poor leadership.

Why is non-compliance with the law more prevalent in some states than in others?

The standard predictors of criminal activity are likely important here (things like structural disadvantage and residential instability). This probably varies to some extent with the laws in question though.

Certain types of crimes (including homicides, aggravated assaults and gun violence) have spiked, while others (rape, robberies and property crimes) have dropped, during the pandemic. What accounts for the rise and fall in rates of these violations this year?

I do not know, and I think it will be some time before we know. I’d caution against taking one year changes as necessarily indicative of any broader trend. We’d want to account for the trends pre-pandemic.

This is something I’m interested in doing, but the way that this methodology works requires more length on the “tail” of the data – meaning, the definitive work on crime will not happen for another two to three years.

Regarding these specific crimes, I suppose one could hypothesize that the pandemic has produced a sense of frustration among people, and that some forms of violence emerge from that.

It would be important to know the context of these violent crimes (what percent happened in the residence, victim-offender relationships, and so forth).

On the other end, other crimes might be on the decline due to a decrease in opportunity. More people at home and fewer people traveling might produce fewer opportunities for property-related crimes.

What are the short- and long-term effects of increased law breaking on a state’s economic stability?

Interesting question. We generally think of this the other way (that economic instability causes crime), but there is some evidence of a feedback relationship.

This seems like a possibility, though an end to the pandemic and the infusion of economic stimulus to halt some of the associated harms of the pandemic could interrupted this feedback loop.

How can states best reduce crime and other types of violations, especially during the pandemic?

There is no one sized fits all approach to reducing crime. It will depend on the types and context of crime that a particular state faces.

However, given the known relationship between economic distress and crime, policies organized to help people may be beneficial in many cases.

What makes people more likely than others to defy COVID-19 rules?

In this case, I suspect that this is about morality and the extent to which people believe in the rules.

Are there certain times of the year when rule breaking generally spikes? If so, when and why those times of year?

In general, crime rates tend to be higher in the summer due to increased contact between people. Other rule-breaking behaviors (like suicide) tend to cluster during stressful months.

Certain types of crimes (including homicides, aggravated assaults and gun violence) have spiked, while others (rape, robberies and property crimes) have dropped, during the pandemic. What accounts for the rise and fall in rates of these violations this year?

Some crimes are up, although I’m hesitant to say that they have “spiked.” For some of these crimes, at least in certain cities, they are up but are still at a level that’s similar to 2016. 

Without knowing the context of the homicides, aggravated assaults, and gun violence (e.g., what is the victim/offender relationship), at least some of this increase is likely due to frustration over COVID and the restrictions.

If some of this violence occurs in the home or among family, friends, and acquaintances, then emotions can run high and people can lash out on each other, particularly if they have been confined together. 

As to why other crimes, such as rape, robberies, and property crimes have decreased, that is likely due to decreases in opportunity. More businesses are closed or their operations are restricted. More people are working from home.

So, it is more difficult to burglarize a home if people are constantly there. And if the businesses are not open as much, then it’s more difficult to rob the people working there. Muggings decrease because people are more often at home.

What are the short- and long-term effects of increased law breaking on a state’s economic stability?

I’m not aware of the research in this area, so I’m reluctant to guess. At a neighborhood level, increased law breaking can damage the number of businesses operating in an area, however, which in turn reduces employment opportunities in that area.

How can states best reduce crime and other types of violations, especially during the pandemic?

First and foremost, states have to look at the evidence on what works in crime reduction and implement strategies based on that evidence.

Crime reduction strategies vary. If you are talking about crime prevention, then strategies that appear to be the most effective include the following:

•       Early intervention programs with at-risk youths.
•       Community programs that build social cohesion in a neighborhood.
•       Situational programs that reduce opportunity for offending (such as improving lighting, neighborhood watches, etc.).
•       Hot-spots policing, problem-oriented policing, and focused deterrence (which focusses on gangs).
•       Certain types of rehabilitation programs that focus on high-risk offenders and what led them to commit crimes.

Second, as to increasing compliance with COVID-19 orders, it’s tough to say right now (see my response below).

What makes people more likely than others to defy COVID-19 rules?

There’s some research in this area, although some may not have gone through the peer-review process.  Overall, it appears that there is no consistency in reasons to comply or not. 

Some research has found that the following may be related to compliance: political orientation (liberals more likely to comply), feeling a moral obligation to obey, fear of the novel coronavirus, social norms (i.e., if others in an area to comply, there can be more “pressure” toward compliance), which media sources are viewed or seen as trustworthy, and income levels (higher income people more able to work from home). 

At the same time, other research has found that these factors are not related to compliance. 

So, it’s too soon to tell.

Are there certain times of the year when rule breaking generally spikes? If so, when and why those times of year?

Crimes tend to increase during warmer months, such as late spring and summer. The biggest reason for this is opportunity; people are more often away from home, at parties, festivals, etc.