Northwest Arkansas’ Great Migration (and the Exodus from Central Arkansas)
by Jake Hill, LawnStarter Research Analyst
August 8, 2017
Northwest Arkansas is on the up-side of the population exchange with Central Arkansas.
From 2010 to 2014, an average of 1,131 people per year moved from Northwest Arkansas (Arkansas’ second biggest population center) to Central Arkansas (Arkansas’ biggest population center), a LawnStarter analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows. Yet during the same period, an average of 1,968 people per year relocated from Central Arkansas to Northwest Arkansas.
The upshot: Stacked up against Northwest Arkansas, Central Arkansas had an annual deficit of 837 residents from 2010 to 2014.
(To see which metro areas are attracting the most residents from Central Arkansas, skip to the listicle at the end of the story.)
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Analyzing total population growth (including birth and mortality rates) over the period between the two regions reinforces these findings. From 2010 to 2014, the Northwest Arkansas metro area grew 7.96 percent whereas the Central Arkansas metro area grew only 3.78 percent.
Though the U.S. Census Bureau hasn’t released Metro-to-Metro Migration Flow data past 2014, the trend looks to continue with the Central Arkansas metro area's total population growing less than 1 percent from 2014 to 2016, while the Northwest Arkansas metro area tacked on an additional 4.51 percent of their 2014 population.
LawnStarter analysis: Northwest Arkansas (currently 525,000) will surpass Central Arkansas (currently 735,000) in population by 2043 if current population growth remains constant.
Comparing Real GDP between the two regions paints an even more vivid picture: Northwest Arkansas will soon be the money capital of Arkansas.
From 2010 to 2014, Real GDP in Northwest Arkansas grew 14.32 percent, compared to the relatively miniscule increase of 6.98 percent in Central Arkansas.
LawnStarter analysis: Northwest Arkansas ($23,784 million in 2015) will surpass Central Arkansas ($35,547 in 2015) in GDP by 2036 if current economic growth remains constant.
Northwest Arkansas’ upper hand? Aggressive investments in the professional and business services sector. The region’s professional and business services industry is growing at a rate 27.6 times faster than Central Arkansas.
Northwest Arkansas has something that Central Arkansas doesn’t: Wal-Mart
Northwest Arkansas’ premier gem (and perhaps key to the region’s success) is its fastest growing suburb, Bentonville. Bentonville outpaced every other municipality in the state adding 4.43 people per day, resulting in an additional 11,310 residents (including birth and mortality rates) from 2010 to 2016.
Bentonville, a suburb to Rogers, AR, is best known as the birthplace and current headquarters of retail giant, Wal-Mart.
In an effort to attract millennial recruits from across the country to better position Wal-Mart as a competitor against the likes of e-commerce giant, Amazon, the Waltons have poured millions of dollars into urbanizing its home region.
The result? Bentonville transformed from a stale suburbia into a hip pseudo-urban area with cultural diversity where millennials want to live and work.
Comparatively speaking, Little Rock is lacking amenities that attract millennials and is consequently losing opportunity for economic growth, thus losing residents to the Northwest Arkansas region. Perhaps Little Rock and the rest of Central Arkansas should look to their neighbors in the northwest for inspiration to attract new residents.
These are the top 16 metros that are attracting the most Central Arkansas residents.
So, which metros did Central Arkansas lose the most residents to from 2010 to 2014? Here are the top 16.
1. Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO Metro Area
New residents per year from Fayetteville to Little Rock: 1,131
Residents who relocate per year from Little Rock to Fayetteville: 1,968
Annual net loss for Little Rock: -837
2. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metro Area
New residents per year from Dallas-Fort Worth to Little Rock: 765
Residents who relocate per year from Little Rock to Dallas-Fort Worth: 1,546
Annual net loss for Little Rock: -781
3. Fort Smith, AR-OK Metro Area
New residents per year from Fort Smith to Little Rock: 691
Residents who relocate per year from Little Rock to Fort Smith: 1,006
Annual net loss for Little Rock: -315
4. San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Metro Area
New residents per year from San Antonio to Little Rock: 106
Residents who relocate per year from Little Rock to San Antonio: 393
Annual net loss for Little Rock: -287
5. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Metro Area
New residents per year from Houston to Little Rock: 426
Residents who relocate per year from Little Rock to Houston: 708
Annual net loss for Little Rock: -282
6. Austin-Round Rock, TX Metro Area
New residents per year from Austin to Little Rock: 67
Residents who relocate per year from Little Rock to Austin: 295
Annual net loss for Little Rock: -228
7. Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL Metro Area
New residents per year from Palm Bay to Little Rock: 0
Residents who relocate per year from Little Rock to Palm Bay: 228
Annual net loss for Little Rock: -228
8. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metro Area
Source: Flickr / Maximfr
New residents per year from Seattle to Little Rock: 40
Residents who relocate per year from Little Rock to Seattle: 266
Annual net loss for Little Rock: -226
9. El Paso, TX Metro Area
New residents per year from El Paso to Little Rock: 38
Residents who relocate per year from Little Rock to El Paso: 242
Annual net loss for Little Rock: -204
10. San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA Metro Area
New residents per year from San Francisco to Little Rock: 3
Residents who relocate per year from Little Rock to San Francisco: 204
Annual net loss for Little Rock: -201
11. Spartanburg, SC Metro Area
New residents per year from Spartanburg to Little Rock: 0
Residents who relocate per year from Little Rock to Spartanburg: 194
Annual net loss for Little Rock: -194
12. Kansas City, MO-KS Metro Area
New residents per year from Kansas City to Little Rock: 76
Residents who relocate per year from Little Rock to Kansas City: 234
Annual net loss for Little Rock: -158
13. Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV Metro Area
New residents per year from Las Vegas to Little Rock: 60
Residents who relocate per year from Little Rock to Fayetteville: 208
Annual net loss for Little Rock: -148
14. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metro Area
New residents per year from Riverside to Little Rock: 113
Residents who relocate per year from Little Rock to Riverside: 260
Annual net loss for Little Rock: -147
15. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metro Area
New residents per year from Phoenix to Little Rock: 49
Residents who relocate per year from Little Rock to Phoenix: 190
Annual net loss for Little Rock: -141
16. Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN Metro Area
New residents per year from Nashville to Little Rock: 231
Residents who relocate per year from Little Rock to Nashville: 347
Annual net loss for Little Rock: -116
Top Photo: Flickr / paul barrows
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