10 Fastest-Growing Big ’Burbs in Texas: How Much Will They Grow by 2030?

Frisco TX

Maybe it’s the stellar schools. Perhaps it’s the abundance of nice homes. Or it might be the allure of lush suburban lawns.

Whatever the reason, big suburbs in Texas — where everything’s bigger, of course — are seeing a significant population spike. For instance, the population of San Marcos, an Austin suburb, soared nearly 8 percent from 2013 to 2014. For that one-year span, San Marcos ranked as the fastest-growing U.S. city with at least 50,000 residents.

Just how much bigger will hyper-growth suburbs like San Marcos get?

A LawnStarter analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Texas Water Development Board shows the state’s 10 fastest-growing big suburbs from 2013 to 2014 are projected to grow at least 20 percent over the next 15 years. The Dallas-Fort Worth suburb of Frisco leads the pack, with its population predicted to climb almost 56 percent from 2014 to 2030.

Frisco TX

These figures don’t surprise Steve Murdock, director of Rice University’s Hobby Center for the Study of Texas. Murdock, former director of the Census Bureau, says that for decades, suburbs have been the fastest-growing parts of metro areas in Texas. The state’s rapid economic expansion has fueled suburban growth, he said.

In Frisco, an August 2015 estimate pegs the city’s population at more than 150,000.

What’s attracting folks to Frisco? For one thing, its housing market is solid. Personal finance website WalletHub recently put Frisco at No. 1 on its 2015 list of the healthiest U.S. housing markets. WalletHub analyzed 300 cities.

Another draw: Frisco’s public schools. The Frisco Independent School District consistently ranks among the best districts in Texas. Today, the Frisco district serves about 53,000 students. By 2021, that number is projected to reach 70,355.

Frisco cheerleaders

“We’ve always known we’re going to be a bigger city,” Tom Felker, president of the Frisco Chamber of Commerce, recently told the Dallas Morning News. “We’re all just making certain that we do so in a way that preserves the quality and, where we can, preserve that small-town home feeling that we’ve always had.”

Here’s our ranking of how the 10 fastest-growing big suburbs in Texas will fare over the next 15 years.

1. Frisco, TX

Frisco TX

Metro area: Dallas-Fort Worth
July 2013 population: 137,062
July 2014 population: 145,035
Percentage increase: 5.82%
Projected 2030 population: 225,663
2014-2030 percentage increase: 55.59%

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2. Georgetown, TX

Georgetown TX

Flickr/A Yee

Metro area: Austin
July 2013 population: 54,934
July 2014 population: 59,102
2013-2014 percentage increase: 7.59%
Projected 2030 population: 91,085
2014-2030 percentage increase: 54.11%

3. San Marcos, TX

Hays County Courthouse

Flickr/Stuart Seeger

Metro area: Austin
July 2013 population: 54,567
July 2014 population: 58,892
2013-2014 percentage increase: 7.93%
Projected 2030 population: 84,818
2014-2030 percentage increase: 44.02%

4. Conroe, TX

Conroe TX

Conroe Convention & Visitors Bureau

Metro area: Houston
July 2013 population: 62,591
July 2014 population: 65,871
2013-2014 percentage increase: 5.24%
Projected 2030 population: 93,516
2014-2030 percentage increase: 41.97%

5. Cedar Park, TX

Cedar Park TX

Metro area: Austin
July 2013 population: 61,292
July 2014 population: 63,574
2013-2014 percentage increase: 3.72%
Projected population in 2030: 89,517
2014-2030 percentage increase: 40.81%

6. New Braunfels, TX

Comal County Courthouse

Wikimedia Commons

Metro area: San Antonio
July 2013 population: 63,365
July 2014 population: 66,394
2013-2014 percentage increase: 4.78%
2030 projected population: 90,609
2014-2030 percentage increase: 36.47%

7. Sugar Land, TX

Sugar Land TX

Flickr/Mohit Bangia

Metro area: Houston
July 2013 population: 83,859
July 2014 population: 86,777
2013-2014 percentage increase: 3.48%
2030 projected population: 114,908
2014-2030 percentage increase: 32.42%

8. League City, TX

League City TX

Flickr/Mike Fisher

Metro area: Houston
July 2013 population: 91,031
July 2014 population: 94,403
2013-2014 percentage increase: 3.70%
2030 projected population: 123,577
2014-2030 percentage increase: 30.90%

9. Pearland, TX

Pearland TX

Metro area: Houston
July 2013 population: 100,158
July 2014 population: 103,441
2013-2014 percentage increase: 3.28%
2030 projected population: 125,231
2014-2030 percentage increase: 21.07%

10. McKinney, TX

Smith Drug McKinney TX

Flickr/tiny dragons

Metro area: Dallas-Fort Worth
July 2013 population: 149,168
July 2014 population: 156,767
2013-2014 percentage increase: 5.09%
2030 projected population: 188,628
2014-2030 percentage increase: 20.32%

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Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Texas Water Development Board


John Egan

John Egan is the former editor in chief of LawnStarter.com. Now, he is a freelance writer extraordinaire. He lives in Austin, Texas.